Introducing Player Projections From Optimal

The brand new Player Projections view breaks down the full range of what a player is expected to do in their upcoming game across all stat categories. Instead of one prediction, you see the probability of hitting every key threshold.

We will walk through every percentile on Tyler Herro’s Points projection and explain exactly what each one means in real-world terms.

The line for this game was 19.5 points.

1st Percentile – 0 Points

Roughly 1% of the time (1 out of every 100 games), Herro will score 0 points.

This represents extreme outliers such as early injury, ejection, or barely seeing the court.

5th Percentile – 5.39 Points

Roughly 5% of the time (5 out of every 100 games), Herro will score 5 points or fewer.

This reflects disaster scenarios where nothing goes right. Poor shooting, low usage, foul trouble, or limited minutes.

10th Percentile – 9.02 Points

Roughly 10% of the time (1 out of every 10 games), Herro will score 9 points or fewer.

This is a clear “bad game” outcome. Shots aren't falling, and he never finds a rhythm.

25th Percentile – 15.08 Points

Roughly 25% of the time (1 out of every 4 games), Herro will score 15 points or fewer.

This represents a below-average game. Not a total failure, but not what you want if you are on the over.

50th Percentile (Median) – 21.82 Points

Roughly 50% of the time (1 out of every 2 games), Herro will score 21–22 points or fewer.

This is the most likely outcome. If you had to pick one number that best represents expectation, this is it.

Because the sportsbook line is 19.5 and the median is 21.8, the model says that Herro goes over this line more often than he goes under it. Herro scored 20 pts in this game for what it’s worth.

75th Percentile – 28.55 Points

Roughly 75% of the time (3 out of every 4 games), Herro will score 28 points or fewer.

Or looked at another way:

About 25% of the time (1 out of every 4 games), Herro scores 29 points or more.

This is a strong scoring night. Everything is working.

90th Percentile – 34.62 Points

Roughly 90% of the time (9 out of every 10 games), Herro will score 34 points or fewer.

That also means:

About 10% of the time (1 out of every 10 games), he scores 35 points or more.

This is ceiling territory. High usage, hot shooting, competitive game script.

95th Percentile – 38.25 Points

Roughly 95% of the time (19 out of every 20 games), Herro will score 38 points or fewer.

Only 5% of the time (1 out of every 20 games) does he reach 38+ points. These are rare blow-up performances.

99th Percentile – 45.05 Points

Roughly 99% of the time (99 out of every 100 games), Herro will score 45 points or fewer.

Only 1% of the time (1 out of every 100 games) does he hit this extreme outcome. These are true slate-breaking outliers.

How These Projections Are Built

These projections are not based on simple historical averages or box-score trends. Optimal reverse-engineers real-time sportsbook player props using proprietary algorithms to construct these full probability distributions. That means every projection is built from current market expectations for this exact game. It already reflects matchups, pace, usage, injuries, rotations, and betting-market sentiment. In other words, these numbers represent what the market thinks should happen tonight, translated into a full range of realistic outcomes. This is why the projections move when lines move. They are forward-looking, not backward-looking.

How This Helps You Bet Smarter

Now compare everything you just learned to the sportsbook line:

• Line: 19.5

• Median: 21.8

• 25th Percentile: 15.1

• 75th Percentile: 28.6

This immediately tells you a few important things:

• The line is below the most likely outcome

• The line is above the true floor

• There is meaningful upside beyond the line

• But there is still real downside risk

Instead of guessing, you now understand:

• How often the bet realistically fails

• How often it meaningfully clears

• And how much margin for error you truly have

That is the difference between betting blindly and betting with structure.

Final Takeaway

Projections let you see:

• The bad games

• The average games

• The strong games

• And the outlier explosions

All in one easy-to-consume view.

This is not about guaranteeing winners.

It is about replacing gut feel with probability-based decision making.